Private Property
Private market investments tend to trade infrequently and have lagged or smoothed valuations, making it a challenge to understand their performance.
Private market investments tend to comprise illiquid assets that trade infrequently and may have lagged or smoothed valuations. The returns of these investments thus may behave quite differently than the contemporaneous returns of public market equivalents, which presents challenges to understanding the performance of the private markets.
The juxtaposition of the private US real estate NCREIF Property Index with the Dow Jones US Select REIT Index effectively demonstrates this distinction. Comparing longer-term quarterly returns for the two indices (see Exhibit 1, top panel) shows far more variation in the performance of publicly listed securities. The standard deviation of quarterly returns for the Dow index is 9.6%, more than four times as much as the NCREIF’s 2.1%.
Smoothing the returns of the REIT index (bottom panel), thereby potentially mimicking its private market counterpart, narrows the gap between the two. Replacing the quarterly observations for REITs with a three-year moving average shrinks the publicly traded index’s volatility so it is in line with the NCREIF index and more closely aligns the time series behavior. This is a reminder for investors to be cautious when interpreting correlations or Sharpe ratios measured with private market returns.
EXHIBIT 1
Top-Heavy Performance
Year-to-date cumulative returns as of July 31, 2023
Stock market slides may lead investors to anticipate a down year. But a broad market index had positive returns in 17 of the past 20 calendar years, despite some notable dips in many of those years.
GLOSSARY
Standard deviation: A measure of the variation or dispersion of a set of data points. Standard deviations are often used to quantify the historical return volatility of a security or portfolio.
Sharpe ratio: A ratio of return per unit of volatility.
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Risks
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